The rise of Kamala Harris has shaken up his calculations, but he soldiers on
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. had harbored real hopes of shaking up the 2024 US presidential election and perhaps even emerging victorious — as improbable as that sounds. He had name recognition and an interesting policy mashup and the undeniable angle that his two rivals — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — were each somehow unviable, if not outright ridiculous.
That playbook probably needs to be thrown away now that Biden has been replaced by Kamala Harris. She has her own vulnerabilities but she’s not unviable, and so by comparison to Biden she’s now riding rather high. The weekend’s NYT poll has her four points up in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which could be the election right there.
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The 70-year-old environmental lawyer and activist is still trying to get onto the debate stage and on ballots nationwide but his poll numbers, once well into double digits, are wobbly. It’s still early days in a way, and Kennedy has a devoted following — but he certainly does seem to face some very long odds.
In theory, I do assess there will be room for a third way in American politics; few agree with me, but one person’s original thinker is another’s fantasist. The two-party “system” is not at all a system but a reflection of the presumed existence of two major streams of thought.
France had a seeming two-party system as well, though its proportional electoral method does not reward it the way America’s winner-take-all paradigm (in most states) does; then Emanuel Macron showed a centrist can win, and now France has reorganized into three blocs.
In America I see progressives, MAGA and some kind of still-evolving center. Only if this center develops will reforms be possible, because the two-party landscape is in polarized gridlock.
Kennedy’s supporters say he is not endangering the Democrats mainly, which is the kind of thing that tends to kill early support for a third-party candidate somehow associated with one of the sides. I’m pretty sure Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein in 2016 cost Al Gore and Hilary Clinton their respective elections, and I really don’t know how they can live with themselves. But in Kennedy’s case, certainly if policies matter, his platform does threaten to draw from both Trump and the Democrats (of whom he was once one).
On issues like vaccine skepticism, he aligns with Trump’s base, expressing doubts about government mandates and public health measures related to COVID-19. He also shares Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric, often criticizing mainstream media, Big Tech, and government institutions. Additionally, Kennedy has voiced concerns about illegal immigration and has called for stronger border security, echoing Trump’s focus on the U.S.-Mexico border.
At the same time, Kennedy remains committed to environmental advocacy, a traditional Democratic priority. He champions clean energy, combating climate change, and protecting civil liberties and privacy rights. His opposition to mass surveillance and government overreach resonates with progressives who prioritize civil rights. He supports healthcare reform, particularly in reducing prescription drug prices and addressing corporate influence in the pharmaceutical industry, aligning him with Democratic goals.
Interestingly, he is also a major friend of Israel, though he also supports a two-state solution and appears to have lost patience with the exhausting Benjamin Netanyahu. That would seem at this point to place him in the center zone of the US discourse on this issue as well.
In short, Kennedy presents an odd brew that blends populist themes from both sides of the political spectrum and might appeal to voters disillusioned with the two major parties.
With Biden around Kennedy had been polling in the high teens. In theory, had his poll numbers started climbing, splitting the vote three ways might have been conceivable, and then anything could happen. The campaign had polls showing he could handily defeat Trump if only Biden pulled out, which I actually believe is true. The president, of course, did quit the race — just not in the way Kennedy needed. Now the campaign is hoping to get on enough ballots, win a few cantankerous states, and force a contingent election (in which no one gets the requisite 270 electoral votes). That triggers arcane Electoral College procedures which only devotees can truly understand.
So Kennedy soldiers on (although reports this week suggested he is also shopping himself to Harris and Trump both). Either way, he recently hosted me on his podcast, Path to Peace, together with my friend Ghada Zoabi, an Arab-Israeli entrepreneur and activist who is the head of the Bokra website. I was happy to take part. Check it out, below.